The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13

The Jokers Wild

Jul 08, 2014 -- 7:45pm

In an epic battle Novak Djokovic persevered and defeated Roger Federer in 5 thrilling sets 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 5-7, 6-4, to capture his second Wimbledon title, and thus regain the world number 1 ranking, while denying Federer his record breaking 8thAll England championship. While compelling, I wouldn’t equate this match to the historic level of 1980 Borg-McEnroe or 2008 Nadal-Federer, which are perhaps the greatest finals in the long history of the tournament. Borg- McEnroe had John win the most famous tiebreaker ever 18-16 and then Bjorn shook that off and still prevailed in the 5thset 8-6. Remember also what was at stake, because Borg had won 4 in a row. In 2007 Federer had won 5 titles in a row and similar to Borg , Rafa overcame the adversity of losing 2 straight sets before winning 9-7 in the 5thset as darkness was setting in.

Sunday’s match featured great shifts in momentum, and high quality play, 68 winners for Novak and only 24 unforced errors, and more remarkable 75 winners versus only 29 unforced errors for Roger.  After splitting the first 2 tight sets, the third is where the Joker began to grasp victory. Federer really dominated the set. His serving was remarkable, even for him. He held his service very easily, pounding 13 aces and placing 83% of his first serves in. Nole ‘s service holds were more of a struggle, but he managed to grit his way thru it and get to the tiebreaker, where Federer made some uncustomary mistakes, spraying some forehands on key points. Roger had to be really discouraged after losing a set that he controlled.  Seizing the momentum, Novak jumped out to a 5-2 lead in the fourth, and it appeared as if the title would be his shortly. But, handling prosperity has been an issue for Djokovic lately in major finals, and Nole once again tightened up and lost 5 straight games to lose the set. After 4 great sets, the match was on even terms.

This is where Novak got some level of redemption. As I stated, Djokovic’s recent problems in major finals,[ 0-3 losing to Nadal in Paris and New York and to Murray last year here in London}, created the perception of a fragile psyche. Many at this point were questioning his Championship mettle, his 6-7 record in slam finals entering Sunday, was a testament to his seeming inability to seize the moment. For me, this is just nonsense. Djokovic is truly one of the all-time greats, he just has the misfortune of playing in the same era with perhaps the 2 greatest players in the open era{Nadal and Federer}. To his credit Novak overcame any doubts and outplayed Roger comprehensively in the 5thand decisive set. He captured his 7thmajor, which ties him with John McEnroe and Mats Wilander. That’s not too shabby folks.

For Roger, a great run this year falls short. I don’t know if at this stage of his remarkable career he can play any better. He served brilliantly, pulling out 29 aces and won 77% of his first serves in play, against an opponent who might be the best returner of serve to ever play. For a man of his age to look as good, with his balletic movement, power and precision, is just astonishing. However, there is a cold, stark and sobering reality here for the seven time champion. Like I always say on the show, championship tennis is a game for the young. Federer is about to turn 33 yrs old, which is fossilized in the world of tennis. Truthfully despite his great effort, Roger did finally start to show signs of fatigue in the 5thset, when he began to make several unforced mistakes. Additionally the weakest part of Federer’s game has always been his return of serve, especially on the backhand side, and against Djokovic Sunday, he really struggled.

The bottom line here is that Djokovic did what he was supposed to do. He is 5 years younger than Roger, which is an eternity in tennis. Federer was bidding to become the oldest Wimbledon Champion of the open era, while Novak is right in the middle of his prime. As is often the case, youth was served.

 

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