The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13


Oct 27, 2012 -- 8:17pm

LOOPER  Movie Review      4 out of 4

Just when you feared that Hollywood had run out of fresh ideas, here comes Rian Johnson’s inventive, exciting and thoughtful thriller, LOOPER. It’s the best time travel film I’ve ever seen. The plot summary: It’s the year 2044 and time travel has yet to be invented, but criminals from the future { 2074} are sending back victims in time to 2044 to be killed by hitmen. Loopers are the contract killers, who have agreed, rather shortsightedly, to tie up loose ends by killing the 2074 version of themselves. The assassins are called loopers because they know that in 30 years they will be killed by a younger version of themselves, thus closing the loop. I LOVE intelligent sci-fi, but too often in these endeavors the characters get lost in the storytelling, like in Prometheus. What sets LOOPER apart, is that Johnson makes sure we care about the characters, they are well developed and must face interesting moral and ethical questions. Joseph Gordon Levitt is tremendous as the loner, antihero assassin. Bruce Willis is terrific as the 30 year older version of Levitt. Their scene together in a diner is one of the best scenes this year in cinema. Imagine sitting over lunch talking to a 30 year older version of yourself. Freaky. The supporting cast is top notch, including the young Pierre Gagnon, who is extraordinary as Cid. His mom is cleverly performed by Emily Blunt, who is just so likable in everything. The script is smart and polished, events move along in hard hitting fashion. About half way thru, the film takes an unpredictable and shrewd turn. I don’t want to reveal anymore, the plot developments are better discovered while viewing. The last time a film garnered 4 stars from me was in 2008 { The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire}. I’m a tough grader. Greatness to me is reserved for films where everything works together in perfect harmony, like a great basketball team. In LOOPER the story is original and suspenseful. The characters are well thought out and brilliantly portrayed. It is a film that is engaging, entertaining, affecting and insightful. It is one of the best Sci-Fi films I’ve seen in years. A MUST SEE !!!!

Return to: Perry Laurentino Blog