The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13


Oct 02, 2012 -- 3:22pm

{ musings and observations following 14 non-stop hours of Sunday viewing}

Falcons 30 Panthers 28  Congrats to Atlanta, currently the best team in the NFC. Good teams find ways to win even when they are not playing their best. Falcons stole one. Contrarily, bad teams like the Panthers, will find a way to screw it up. I still can’t believe Panthers safety Haruki Nakamura let Roddy White get behind him at that point in the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets benched.

Arizona 24 Miami 21 OT   Cards are 4-0 for the first time since 1974. I’m sure Jim Hart, Dan Dierdorf, Terry Metcalf and the rest of the Cardiac Cards are smiling somewhere. Kevin Kolb took a beating{ 8 sacks} but demonstrated great composure driving his team for a last minute game tying td, including a 15 yard laser pass on 4thand 10 with about 30 seconds left. Arizona is one of the big surprises thus far.

Vikings 20 Lions 13  Minnesota is off to a 3-1 start, but is it sustainable? I’m not sure. Ponder is improved, but is still simply a functional qb. The Vikes couldn’t move the ball via the passing game, totaling just 112 yards. 14 of Minnesota’s 20 points  were scored on kick returns.Give Leslie Frazier’s team credit, their defense has shut down the Lions and 49ers.

Meanwhile the disappointing Lions fall into last place in the NFC North. Minnesota played 2 deep safties most of the game to take away the big play. Yet the Lions couldn’t run it vs. a 7 man box, this must change if Detroit is going to turn it around. Tackling on special teams wouldn’t be a bad idea, Sunday the Lions became the first team since 1940 to give up a punt and kickoff return td in back to back games.

Patriots 52 Bills 28  In the offseason the Bills went on a lavish shopping spree. They invested in d-lineman Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, to attack Tom Brady. The result, The Patriots scored 6 2ndhalf TD’s, turning a 21-7 deficit into a blowout win. Buffalo might have been better served allowing Bernie Madoff to manage their cash.

San Francisco 41 Jets 0   I know the final was 34-0, but Colin Kaepernick displayed good sportsmanship by sliding in the closing seconds rather than tacking on additional points. The 49ers just took the ball and rammed it   down their throats, running for 245 yards !!!! The real scary part for the Jets fans, was that San Francisco didn’t really play well, 2 missed field goals, numerous penalties,  and Alex Smith overthrew wide open receivers.

The Jets offensive contribution: 145 total yards, 9 first downs, and 4 turnovers. Nice job. Next week doesn’t get any easier vs. the Texans. I can already hear the chants calling for Tebow.

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