The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13


Sep 03, 2012 -- 7:03pm

Today, let’s discuss the AFC East...


  1. New England Patriots  12-4   Easiest AFC pick for division winner. The one component missing in the Pats offense last year was a WR that can stretch the field. Enter Brandon Lloyd , who adds to an already potent offense with weapons like Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker patrolling the short and intermediate areas. If the defense is even moderately improved {ranked 31stlast year} and it should be, they dedicated the first 6 picks in the draft to that side of the ball, the Pats are legit Super Bowl contenders again. A word of caution, since Matt light’s retirement, the LT spot has looked real shaky in the pre-season, Pats fans should be fearful of Brady taking one too many shots, a severe injury to him radically alters their season.
  2. Buffalo Bills  9-7   In order to compete for a Super Bowl you must throw the ball effectively and attack the opposing Qb. Bills fans won’t have to worry about the ladder. Buffalo might have the best d-line in the NFL. They signed free agent Mario Williams, the premier pass rusher in the league. Then, a week later, they inked DE Mark Anderson, who registered 10 sacks last year. They join a group that already features Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. New Defensive coordinator Dave Wannestadt should dramatically increase last years sack total of 29. The big question is does Buffalo return to the playoffs for the first time since 1999? It depends on which QB shows up. The good Ryan Fitzpatrick  threw 14 tds and 7 ints  and the Bills were 5-2, he signed a new deal and then Mr. Hyde had 10 tds and 16 ints and the team lost 8 of the last 9 games. Bottom Line: The defense will be much improved from the unit that last year was ranked 30thin scoring and 26thin yards given up, if Fitzpatrick is consistent, they’ll be partying in Buffalo like it’s 1999.
  3. New York Jets  8-8  The Jets offense is a disaster waiting to happen. Mark Sanchez regressed last year, and now will be walking on eggshells with the world’s most famous backup QB Tim Tebow waiting in the wings. When Sanchez is yanked for poor performance, and he will get benched, this will cause a division in the locker room. New offensive coordinator Tony Sparano was hired to return the Jets to a “ground and pound” attack, the problem is that the team doesn’t have the talent upfront to execute it. It seems like square pegs and round holes to me. I understand their desire to run it because they also lack playmakers at the WR position. If the Jets do fall short once again, it won’t be the defenses’ fault. Last year the unit finished in the top 5 in yards allowed, and might improve with the acquisition of DE Quinton Coples, who has looked like a disruptive force in the preseason.
  4. Miami Dolphins  6-10  Head coach Joe Philbin has his work cut out for him. He starts a rookie QB, Ryan Tannehill, behind a leaky o-line that gave up 52 sacks last year, throwing to a pedestrian WR corps. If that isn’t bad enough, they must also transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense. Rebuilding year for the fish.

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