The Dr of the NFL’s Fearless Forecast

AFC Championship Game-New England @ Denver
Is there some sort of immutable law that states that if, in the pre-season, you pick a team to go to the Super Bowl, that you are not allowed to pick against them in the championship game? If so, I’m in a difficult spot. Before the year began, my prognostication was a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, more on Seattle shortly, but I’m leaning against Brady and company today. Here’s why. Too much is being made about last week when New England ran over Indianapolis. As we pointed out, Indy couldn’t stop the run all year, so let’s make LeGarrett Blount out to be Jim Brown just yet. The Broncos run defense has been stout all year [ranked 7th in NFL] and they will provide much more resistance than the Colts did. Look for Brady to come out throwing in this game vs. a porous Broncos secondary that just lost its’ best corner in Chris Harris and is without their best pass rusher in Von Miller. I fully expect the Pats to consistently move the ball and Brady to amass at least 350 yards passing.
Bill Bellichick has a conundrum in this match up vs. Peyton, if he stacks his chips to stop Denver’s running game, Manning will devour his secondary, and if he stays in a cover 2 to prevent the big play, Peyton will audible into a run and Knowshon Moreno and company will run up and down the field on a terrible Patriot run defense [ranked 30th in NFL]. People forget that because the Colts couldn’t take advantage of it because they were a poor running team, Denver will.
In what promises to be a high scoring shootout, TD’s over FG’s will be the difference. Which team will convert in the Red Zone? Peyton completed 72% of his Red Zone passes and threw 37 red zone TD’s with zero INT’s during the regular season, look for that trend to continue. In addition, New England will be playing a road playoff game for the first time in 7 years. The Patriots are 1-5 vs. the spread in their last 6 road contests, and are 0-5 vs the number in their last 5 games played on glass. Broncos advance to the Super Bowl.
Denver 37 New England 30.

NFC Championship Game-San Francisco @ Seattle
I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week. Seattle’s been the best team all year but the 49ers are red hot and playing better right now. Home field is huge in this one but the 49ers front 7 vs. Seattle’s erratic O-line can quiet things down. Russell Wilson concerns me, he’s not played well the last 4 or 5 games and he’ll be without Percy Harvin. But Colin Kaepernick has been awful in both games he’s played in this building.
As good as Seattle’s defense is, you can run it occasionally on them. The 49ers ran for 163 yards in week 14 win against Seattle, can Gore and company repeat this on the road? This is the key to the game, if Gore is producing, the 49ers can sneak out with a win, if not, Seattle will pressure Kaepernick, contain his rushing lanes, and force him into mistakes. Much has been made of the 49ers resurgence on offense since the return of Michael Crabtree, but Richard Sherman will effectively eliminate him and Vernon Davis will have his hands full with Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas who are the best Safety tandem in the league.
I think San Francisco must get off to a healthy start to take the crowd out of it, otherwise things could snowball. Kaepernick completes just 54% of his passes when he’s trailing. Their offense is built for long drives, not short ones. This is why Gore is the key to the game, by establishing the run and sending a physical message, it could set the 49ers up for the upset. We all know that Seattle is near invincible at home but San Francisco is better equipped than any other team to pull this off.
So who wins? In a game that promises to be a tight, low scoring affair, I think it’s Seattle’s year. I trust Russell Wilson more in this spot not to make a critical error than I do Kaepernick. If both teams struggle to run it, which I expect, it gets to which QB will avoid the big mistake. No defense is better than Seattle’s at stopping the opposing QB, with the combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Look for Seattle’s secondary to get the best of Kaepernick and with the homefield to back them, Seattle returns to the Super Bowl.
Seattle 19 San Francisco 13

Who is #1 ?

Aug 28, 2012 -- 2:22pm

 

The US Open begins today amidst great intrigue on the mens side. Lets face it, Serena Williams looks so utterly dominant right now, that it would almost be shocking is she DIDN’T win the title. However the mens portion is much more debatable. Many feel that the victor will determine the mens player of the year. Each of the top 4 have signature wins. Djokovic won the Austrailian Open, Nadal won the French Open, Federer won Wimbledon, and Andy Murray won at the Olympics. A case could be made for each as the player of the year with a win at Flushing Meadows.

    No doubt the tournament and the sport will be hurt by the withdrawl of Rafael Nadal. It won’t be the same without him. As a fan of the sport, I hope he solves the issues with his now troublesome knees.

    Without having to worry about his nemesis { Nadal}, many consider Roger Federer to be the prohibitive favorite. But the draw does not do Roger any favors. The ATP needs to rethink the process they use to form the brackets.The organizers basically use a lottery to determine the draw. Perhaps seed the players according to rankings, that would seem more equitable. Consider that Federer is currently no. 1 in the world, and thus should have an easier draw than Djokovic. Yet Roger’s path seems much more formidable. He could get Marty Fish in the 4thround. Marty has a big serve and can be tough on fast surfaces. Roger’s potential semi-final opponents are even more dangerous. Tomas Berdych beat Roger in the 2004 Olympics and Wimbledon 2004. Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who also beat Roger at Wimbledon. Andy Murray, the best player not to win a major, who should be brimming with confidence after beating Roger at the Olympics final.

   Novak’s bracket seems much more manageable. Del Potro potentially in the quarters could be dicey, but Martin is dealing with another wrist injury. Gasquet in the semi’s is not a threat, and with all due respect, neither is David Ferrer, who at 30 is a great competitor, but has never reached a slam final.

  PREDICTION  Novak Djokovic over Roger Federer in the final. Roger has had a great year, but he’s 31 yrs old, coming off a tough but successful tournament in Cincinnati. The US Open is a demanding and grueling 2 weeks, that plus a tougher draw gives Novak the edge. The joker is at home on the courts at Flushing, 33-6 lifetime at the Open, and will successfully defend his title.

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